Ocean freight pricing often feels like a moving target—and lately, many of our clients have been asking the same question: Why are ocean freight rates staying high or even increasing despite a global slowdown in demand?
It’s a great question, and while the answer may seem simple on the surface, you have to rewind over a decade to fully understand the current situation.
I try not to bore you with numbers and ocean freight seems to have a bunch. Many of our clients have had so many questions on why prices are remaining or increasing.
Really great question, and though the answer is pretty straight forward you have to go back to 2008 -2009 to truly grasp the numbers. Back in ‘08 and ‘09 the carriers and the resulting “crash” or however you refer to it as, left the carriers in a mess. Container equipment was in all the wrong places and many were stranded at inland rail ramps and ports where it was not needed. After much agony and adjustments, the carriers got equipment moved, but they reacted very slowly to the drop in demand resulting in a struggle to recover.
Some carriers are adding back a sailing, but not much change to capacity has been added and “Blank” sailings are continuing. The consultants and the carriers have not made any determinations yet for the third quarter as to vessels that will be added. Most are waiting to see what demand will be and they will likely add as needed and, in a manner, to keep prices stable.
Lessons from the Last Recession
The global financial crisis of 2008–2009 was a turning point for ocean shipping. When global trade collapsed, carriers found themselves overextended—too many vessels, too much equipment, and too few goods moving. Containers were stuck in inland locations far from where they were needed. This led to major financial losses, bankruptcies, and an industry-wide reevaluation of how to manage supply and demand.
Fast forward through the last decade and you find the emergence of three very large alliances. The carriers have learned to work very well together and quickly to reduce their costs and capacities. While demand is down across the board, the carriers have removed capacity from the trade lanes. According to carrier information, the Journal of Commerce and Sea-Intelligence Maritime Consulting, mid-May saw Asia/North Pacific trade with a reduction of 25% capacity. Asia to the Mediterranean saw a 30% drop and Asia to North America dropped approximately 15%. The reduction in capacity has held rates 14% to 25% higher in some trade lanes, with only China to the US East Coast seeing a modest 2% drop per forty-foot container rate.
How Alliances Reshaped the Industry
Since that crisis, shipping lines have become more disciplined and coordinated, largely through the formation of major vessel-sharing alliances like THE Alliance, 2M, and Ocean Alliance. These partnerships allow carriers to pool capacity, share space on ships, and adjust service offerings quickly in response to market demand.
What does that mean for shippers today? Even when demand drops, carriers are no longer scrambling to fill half-empty ships. Instead, they strategically reduce sailings—called “blank sailings”—to remove excess capacity, helping them maintain pricing power.
What to Expect Moving Forward
At this point in the year, the third quarter is critical. Historically, Q3 represents peak season for ocean freight, especially from Asia to North America, as importers prepare for back-to-school and holiday demand. But uncertainty around consumer spending, ongoing labor issues, and macroeconomic volatility are keeping everyone cautious.
Most carriers are expected to continue managing supply week by week, adding sailings only when there’s clear evidence of sustainable demand. The result? Rates remain firm, and in many cases, space remains tight despite lower volumes than in pre-pandemic years.
What You Can Do
If you’re managing international shipments, planning ahead is more important than ever. Here’s what we recommend:
- Book early: Secure your space as soon as your order is confirmed.
- Stay flexible: Consider alternate routings or ports to avoid congestion.
- Work closely with your logistics partner: A proactive freight forwarder can help you stay ahead of schedule shifts, equipment imbalances, and rate spikes.
At Jade International, we continue to monitor market conditions and work closely with our carrier partners to secure the best options available for our clients. If you have questions about upcoming shipments, rate trends, or strategic planning for peak season, our team is here to help.
Written by: Scott Hoffman
